Analysis of strategy, risk and decision-making

Analysis of strategy,

risk and decision-making

Christopher Lang, futurist

Rational decision-making, strategic planning, risk analysis, and strategy development and evaluation are possible, but reliably predicting our future is not. Defining the limits of predictability is the focus of my philosophical research. Developing practical new alternative methodology for political and corporate strategy development is the focus of my professional work.

For updated material on this topic, visit PredictionScience.com: an open community improving decision-making and strategy world-wide by developing, explicating, and/or evaluating practical predictive logics, software, formal methods, and expectations about the future.

A Problem with Probability	Explains why the most common statistical methods in market research and social forecasting are theoretically useless
Some Hidden Assumptions of Statistical Projection	Explains how chaos renders marketing statistics doubly useless for long-term planning by amplifying Heisenberg uncertainty in complex systems (such as markets) with a time constant inversely proportional to an unbounded Liapunov exponent
Predictive Deduction: expanding the arsenal of science	Defends a step-by-step method for evaluating predictions with deductive logic, modeling complexity with a generalized theory of evolution
Anticipating the Demise of Advertising and Branding	A sample analysis of predictions about information management, e-commerce and communications technology that would render advertising and branding largely ineffective
Planning for the Surprising Slow Dawning of a Golden Age	A sample analysis of a theory of Golden Age economics and the extension of open source software movement into other industries.

I promote predictive deduction because it is the only known method to generate provably complete lists of “market discontinuities” (what, in Only the Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove calls 10X factors ). It is thus an empowering tool. I believe that sharing it openly, empowering everyone to decide more intelligently, will ultimately benefit us all.

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ANALYSIS #1

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ON ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE

CHAOS

PROBABILITY

AUTHOR