Near the end of week one of the 2025 NFL season, the Buffalo Bills found themselves down 15 points to the Baltimore Ravens late in the fourth quarter. As the Bills’ punter kicked the ball away, ESPN’s online win probability tracker shifted the Ravens’ chances of victory to a towering 98.6%.
With Baltimore up by multiple touchdowns, most sports fans saw a game that seemed basically cooked. Michael Titelbaum saw yet another example of Bayesian philosophy at work.
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